Despite the record rollout of renewable energy, demand for coal and oil in China is on the rise.
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China, the world’s largest polluter, needs to drastically cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2025 in order to meet most of its climate targets, a new analysis has suggested.
Despite China’s updated climate pledges and government pressure to hit emissions reduction targets, CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the country rose 12% between 2020 and 2023, owing to a post-pandemic rebound in coal and oil demand, according to the new study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) published last week in Carbon Brief.
This came in response to recent extreme weather events in the country, including historic heatwaves and droughts, which led to a drastic jump in electricity consumption for air conditioning while exacerbating hydropower operating rates. A March 2023 report compiled by CREA and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM) showed that in 2022, China approved a record number of coal-fired plants, the equivalent of all the UK’s plants combined and the highest since 2015.
Oil and gas consumption also increased last year, owing to declining prices from 2022 highs.
Ironically, the record manufacturing of clean energy in recent years, which has earned China the title of global leader in renewable energy deployment, has also played a role in rising CO2 emissions in the country, which last year alone grew by 5.2%. In particular, last week’s analysis suggests that the unprecedented pace solar PV, electric vehicles, and batteries rollout contributed approximately 1% of CO2 emissions growth last year.
While the fast deployment of clean energy has put the nation on track to double its wind and solar capacity by 2025 and reach its clean energy target five years ahead of schedule, last week’s analysis paints a different picture, arguing that the country is “severely” off track on most of its climate targets. In particular, the authors suggest that meeting its target to cut carbon intensity by 18% between 2021 and 2025 will require a 4-6% drop in CO2 emissions by the end of next year. Carbon intensity refers to CO2 emissions per unit of economic output.
The country is also at risk of missing other targets, including reducing energy intensity, “strictly” limiting coal consumption growth and “strictly” controlling new coal power projects as well as boosting the non-fossil share of electricity in the grid. Nevertheless, as long as the clean energy installation momentum is maintained, China could still meet some of its 2025 goals and hit peak emissions long before its 2030 target, the analysis said.
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