With the two-week COP28 summit in Dubai starting this week, focus shifts to inaugural Global Stocktake narratives, overshadowing other environmental agendas. Themed sessions will center on finance, trade, energy, industry, urbanization, and transport, with the goal of tackling crucial gaps and enhancing policies for a sustainable future.
—
Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical turbulence shaping the planet throughout the past year, the significance of global environmental issues remains unwavering. Especially given concurrent climate-related disasters in 2023, such as widespread wildfires and flooding issues across the globe. This year’s Conference of the Parties (COP), held annually under the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (UNFCCC), signifies the midpoint between the signing of the Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted at COP21 in 2015 – and the target year of 2030.
While some might see COP28 as the next milestone in global climate change policy, it is probably wiser to reserve judgment until we see the actual results and negotiations unfold.
The escalating attention towards the primary topics of COP28 is indeed instilling a sense of optimism, regardless of whether it will be a turning point. The main controversies, intensified among the Parties, have also heightened attention toward the most pertinent climate challenges at present. Disagreements primarily revolve around the actions of the fossil fuel industries regarding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fast energy transition problems, as well as funding issues.
You might also like: What Can We Expect From COP28, And What Must Happen?
Campaigners advocate a phase-out of fossil fuels, but discussions at COP27 on expanding the coal phase-down to include oil and gas failed to secure a final agreement. COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief and head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology of the United Arab Emirates – this year’s hosting country, sees a fossil fuel phase-down as “inevitable.”
In essence, the prevailing expectation for COP28 is centered on achieving a comprehensive verdict on whether the wealthiest nations will uphold their previously pledged commitments to alleviate the challenges posed by climate change on the planet. Moreover, the conference seeks to reaffirm goals by supporting the clean-energy sector and providing help to developing countries, which bear the brunt of ecological repercussions and are vulnerable to financial involvement in global initiatives. It is noteworthy that these nations contribute the least to emissions while grappling with the most significant consequences. The need for equitable participation and responsibility-sharing is important in addressing the global climate challenge.
What Is the Global Stocktake?
The upcoming conference holds a distinctive feature.
COP28 is placing particular emphasis on prioritizing the world’s first Global Stocktake (GST) on climate change, a process scheduled to take place every five years, as set out in the Paris Agreement.
GST is already referenced as an important evaluation action for countries and stakeholders to assess collective progress towards key goals, acknowledging the urgency to act now as the window for meaningful change is closing, with COP28 providing an opportunity to leverage decisions and accelerate ambition in subsequent climate action plans due in 2025.
Despite advancements in the renewable energy sector and innovative technologies, Global Stocktake emphasizes the urgency for more action, as the world falls short of meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. With the threshold temperature for global warming set at around 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and well below 2C, the IPCC special report released in October 2018 serves as the authoritative scientific foundation guiding government policy decision-making as countries work to enhance their national climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.
However, key findings conclude that emissions are rising too fast to meet the 1.5C by 2030 target. The agreement also targets to constrain GHG emissions to reach a net-zero state – where emissions from human activities are naturally absorbed – within the timeframe spanning from 2050 to 2100.
GST also underscores a widening gap between the needs of developing countries and the support allocated and mobilized for them, emphasizing the directive to unlock and redeploy trillions of dollars toward climate action and climate-resilient development.
Assessing Collective Progress
Parties share common goals for Global Stocktake. Integrating GST insights into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is a strategic move, linking the global assessment to concrete national actions. The dual nature of the declaration, conveying both political signals and technical assessment, highlights the complexity of the issues at hand. The results of COP28 and the inaugural GST indeed hold the potential to set the tone for future reviews – a precedent that can shape the trajectory of global climate efforts.
GST is driving transformative climate efforts with a focus on key priorities: a rapid move away from fossil fuels, a threefold increase in renewable energy capacity, and an overhaul of food systems. Critical commitments involve stopping deforestation, cutting food loss, and embracing fossil fuel-free transportation. These actions mark a critical step toward a more sustainable and resilient future.
Redirecting global financial flows toward net-zero emissions and climate-resilient development is a pivotal move. The anticipation of next year’s COP29 establishing a new climate finance goal underlines the recognition of the financial dimension in tackling climate change. Reforms in international financial architecture, especially in multilateral development banks, are seen as vital to address debt distress exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. It serves as a holistic approach – recognizing that economic structures need to align with environmental goals for effective climate action.
You might also like: Climate Justice and COP28: Analysing the Progress on the Loss and Damage Fund
Global Stocktake: Three Stages, Three Essential Highlights, and Three Actors
Global Stocktake comprises three sequential phases:
- The Information Collection and Preparation phase, initiated at COP26 in November 2021 and concluding in June 2023, involves compiling reports from various entities to generate synthesis reports on emissions, adaptation, NDCs, and finance flows.
- The Technical Assessment, spanning mid-2022 to mid-2023, utilizes the collected information to produce summary reports, with the publication of the overarching scientific synthesis report.
- This sets the stage for the Political Phase, scheduled for COP28, during which the synthesized information will guide political discussions and decisions on global climate action. COP28, scheduled from November 30 to December 12, 2023, signifies the political phase and the official disclosure of GST outputs.
Post-COP28, countries will submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions in response to the GST from December 2023 to December 2025.
The current strategy of the checkpoint within GST assessment involves governments monitoring and assessing their progress in climate action, centering around three focal points: mitigation, adaptation, and finance.
To bend the curve and limit global warming to 1.5C by 2050, the assessment underscores the imperative of reducing GHG emissions by 43%, 60%, and 84% from 2019 levels by 2030, 2035, and 2050, respectively, with a focus on scaling up renewables, decreasing fossil fuel dependency, enhancing energy efficiency in industries and transport, and preserving forests while addressing non-CO2 emissions.
GST highlights the essential need for specific adaptation strategies. It emphasizes the importance of supporting local communities in developing regions to tackle climate-induced inequalities and advocates for transparent adaptation reports, urging policymakers to improve clarity, methodology, and provide regular updates to showcase progress in climate action. It is all about not just acknowledging the challenges but actively working towards solutions and keeping everyone in the loop about the progress being made.
To address the substantial US$5.9 trillion gap in climate financing for developing countries by 2050, GST advocates for increased mobilization of support, emphasizing the shortfall in meeting the $100 billion annual goal and urging collaboration with the private sector. Additionally, GST suggests reconciling global financial flows with climate goals, proposing innovative measures such as debt-for-climate swaps and emissions pricing to redirect investments away from fossil fuels and align international financial institutions with the challenges of climate change.
You might also like: Wealthy Nations May Have Met $100 Billion Climate Finance Pledge in 2022, OECD Says
Where Do the Major Players Stand?
In the conference setting, the United States – the world’s largest economy and second-biggest polluter after China – is strategically committed to upholding the imperative of transparency, ensuring the precise allocation of financial resources towards emission mitigation efforts.
At the same time, the European Union is calling for a transformative shift, putting forth a global initiative to triple renewable energy capacity through the widespread adoption of wind turbines and solar panels – a substantial move toward a comprehensive transition to green energy.
China asserts the necessity for heightened commitments from developed nations, attributing a significant portion of climate change responsibility to their historical and cumulative emissions. The call to action is clear: a substantive departure from fossil fuel reliance is mandatory.
This geopolitical discourse mirrors a consequential and high-stakes negotiation, akin to a strategic poker game where the welfare of the planet is at stake. The fervent hope is that the most efficacious climate policies prevail for the collective benefit of the global ecosystem.
All Eyes on Dubai
As COP28 approaches its culmination, there is anticipation for the formal presentation of key takeaways and strategic pathways to advance climate action. The “cover decision” seems like the roadmap that will guide the way forward. It is fascinating how these negotiations bring together countries with diverse interests and perspectives to forge a common plan. The uniqueness adds a layer of significance to these proceedings – every decision made has a global impact. Here is hoping for a collaborative and effective outcome that propels us toward a more sustainable future.
It is necessary to acknowledge the interconnected web of environmental challenges we face. Climate change might be in the spotlight, but there is a whole array of issues that need attention. It is like trying to solve a puzzle – you cannot just focus on one piece and expect the whole picture to come together. Meaningful actions and commitments are the key to making a real impact. Let us hope COP28 sets the stage for some serious and comprehensive discussions.
Featured image: COP28 UAE/Flickr
You might also like: World Leaders at COP28 Must Strengthen Climate Mitigation Action to Narrow Emissions Gap As World Faces 3C of Warming This Century, UN Report Warns
